Minnesota Vikings are in a great position to build on their surprising 2013 performance, but will have to be careful to upgrade in places where they haven’t invested well. There are any number of moves the Vikings could make to improve in the offseason, but here’s one specific outline that encompasses the entire offseason.
Minnesota has $9.6 million of cap space to work with, as well as $8.1 million in carryover cap space that they can use to bolster what they have—but the use of carryover space is risky, as that money won’t be available in 2014.
Despite their playoff appearance, the Vikings aren’t ready to play for a “win-it-all” strategy, and will have to continue its slow, but frustrating, march towards a sustainable and long-term strategy. In 2014, the Vikings should expect to make the playoffs, but will need to do so in a way that doesn’t sell out the future of the franchise.
Further, the Vikings aren’t a top-tier destination for free agents—at least not yet. Once again, Spielman might find himself looking for players that could end up being diamonds in the rough. Perhaps he’ll find the next Laurent Robinson or Wes Welker.
So, for now, the Vikings will stay young and make low-profile moves.
The first order of business for Minnesota will be to determine which players to cut. The waiver period is open, but Minnesota has yet to cut any players.
Younger players, like backups Audie Cole and Larry Dean, might be safe from cuts before the draft, but are certainly on the chopping block when training camp starts.
DeMarcus Love had performed at an alright level in the 2011 preseason, but his injury history and the 2012 preseason are both reasons the Vikings should be wary. Nevertheless, they might want to keep him on a season longer to see if he’ll live up to his pre-2010 billing as a potential first-rounder. Again, his age should give appropriate pause to a hasty cut.
But youth isn’t an invulnerable shield—Mistral Raymond can be easily replaced by Jamarca Sanford, and the Vikings wouldn’t incur any cap penalty for cutting him. In fact, they would net $500,000 of cap space by doing so. Given Sendejo’s improvement and the good depth at the bottom of the draft for safeties, the Vikings should cut him and save that space.
Tackle Troy Kropog and Joe Berger will be under scrutiny. Kropog because he’s bounced around and may not be as talented as people initially thought, and Berger because he’ll be 31 (he’s also moved around rosters). Getting rid of Kropog will save $630,000 on the cap, and the Vikings could more efficiently use that space.
Berger has played very well in relief, and backup centers are difficult to find. While he may not have had some of his best performances until late in his career, Berger still has enough to offer the Vikings that they should stay their hand and keep him on the roster.
Marginal players like Nick Taylor and George Johnson might also find themselves cut, unless they find themselves onto the practice squad and replace someone like LaMark Brown. Either way removing two players of that caliber will save $1 million in cap space.
The two nose tackles—Letroy Guion and Fred Evans—are cause for concern, but the Vikings would not do well to cut both of them. They need to find a new nose tackle to start in what may be the most important position of the Tampa-2 defense. Guion was rated as the worst defensive tackle—regardless of scheme—by Pro Football Focus. His play on the field showed it, too. He couldn’t penetrate into the backfield, was moved around in the run game, and couldn’t redirect traffic.
Fred Evans was much better in backup, outperforming Guion by a significant margin. Superior penetration and a stouter stance did well for him, and he was a better difference-maker. Guion would do well as a backup, but his cap hit is three times that of Evans at $4.5 million.
Cutting Guion would normally incur a $500,000 cap hit, but using the post-June 1st designation that allows teams to select two players and treat their cuts as if the next year’s guaranteed money was irrelevant, Guion would not cost the Vikings anything in dead space. Cutting him would save an even $4.5 million for the cap.
At guard, the Vikings need to upgrade from Charlie Johnson, who is more than serviceable at backup, but isn’t ideal as a starter. Unfortunately, he’ll cost $4.5 million in cap space in 2013, and that sort of investment isn’t wise for a backup. Either the Vikings need to restructure his deal, or cut him. In the first instance, his net cap hit would be below $2 million. In a scenario that finds the Vikings cutting Johnson, his dead space would cost $1.5 million.
Because those seem about the same, it’s safe to work with a figure of $3 million added cap space.
The Vikings need to rehaul their receiver corps, and cutting Michael Jenkins fits the bill.
Michael Jenkins is getting worse and wasn’t great in 2012. He had 40 receptions for 449 yards—similar to Domenik Hixon, Rod Streater and Harry Douglas. His 2012 cap hit was the same as those three receivers combined. Cutting him would net $2.5 million in cap space after assessing a $700,000 cap hit in dead space.
He was hired because of his knowledge of the Musgrave offense and because his role as a possession receiver should grab a sizable number of first downs, but he’s dropped off in that area as well.
Other receivers, like Stephen Burton, could be subject to scrutiny, but the Vikings can’t get rid of all their receivers—they will likely choose to let Aromashodu go in free agency, so having a solid set of backup receivers who can still develop is valuable.
Burton improved in a big way from 2011 to 2012, and he could repay the Vikings’ faith in his ability with further improvement in 2013.
Everyone else on the roster either would be too difficult to replace, or costs too much to cut. John Carlson, for example, would cost $5.4 million in dead space but would only save $4.25 million—a net loss with a roster spot yet to fill. Even if they use the post-June 1st designation and spread out the hit over two years, they would only save $500,000 in cap space for 2013 and would still have a tight end spot to fill.
The key is to maintain a roster that won’t just do well in 2013, but is sustainable—dipping into the carryover of $8.1 million won’t be useful, because that cap space won’t be available in 2014.
While cutting players should save $12.1 for a net of $21.7 million, the Vikings will also want to restructure contracts to create additional space to re-sign free agents.
Players to restructure:
The first person that the Vikings need to restructure is Kevin Williams, who has indicated his willingness to restructure several times now.
The Vikings have to worry about $8 million dollars in cap space for the next two years from Kevin Williams, and his production as of late hasn’t warranted that big a contract. While he is ranked as Pro Football Focus’ tenth best tackle of 2012, his impact on plays directly has been more minimal recently. No other player in his position missed more tackles, and he only finished with two total sacks. With only 24 tackles, Williams was a minimally productive 3-technique player.
They might be able to reduce Williams’ contract to a $4 million cap hit, even if it’s more realistic to plan for a $5 million contract. When Winfield renegotiated his contract to only hit $3 million, escalators increased his contract to a $7.25 million cap hit in 2013—a situation the Vikings do not want to deal with when negotiating Williams’ contract. Nevertheless, a willingness to renegotiate makes the deal easier.
Jared Allen might not be as willing to renegotiate his enormous $17.1 million cap hit (he’ll be a free agent in 2014, so the Vikings don’t have much leverage), but if the Vikings offer a new contract full of guaranteed money, he might be more willing. It would make him difficult to cut in the future (as guaranteed money turns into dead space), but a short-term contract worth $12 million in 2013 is possible.
That will increase the Vikings’ cap space to $30.7 million, which they’ll largely use to re-sign free agents, but also bring new blood in.
Vikings Free Agents:
Free agents are Jasper Brinkley, Devin Aromashodu, Marcus Sherels, Marvin Mitchell and Troy Kropog will have to go.
Brinkley has been consistently terrible, and cannot fulfill the responsibilities of a Tampa-2 linebacker. He’s been OK at best in run support, but his coverage skills are severely lacking. He should find a good fit in a 3-4 defense, where he probably has starting capability. Washington and the New York Jets should be able to use him, provided he can cut down on missed tackles (19, fifth most in the league in 2012 and the most of 4-3 inside linebackers).
Aromashodu has never lived up to his potential, and will be 29. There’s a reason he’s moved to seven different teams, and was cut from a wide receiver-weak Chicago Bears in 2010. His speed hasn’t translated into production, and he’ll start regressing from his athletic peak.
Marcus Sherels is an average punt returner, but one of the worst coverage players in the NFL. He allowed an astounding 13.7 yards per attempt in coverage—more than any cornerback who played 25% of their team’s snaps in 2012. By an entire yard. His value as a backup is negative, and if the Vikings can find a decent punt returner—and they should be able to—Sherels needs to go.
Marvin Mitchell and Larry Dean are both below average backups, but Larry Dean has age and upside to save him from cuts. Mitchell, a poor special teams player at best, has neither of those qualities. Given that special teams has been his calling card throughout the league, he shouldn’t survive another camp.
Another player who has bounced around teams is the ever-disappointing Troy Kropog, who hasn’t lived up to his fourth-round billing as a prospect. His awareness has been below-average in his time at camps, and that was his strength. While he has been a good fit for zone-blocking systems, the Vikings want more power from their offensive linemen (the reason for Fusco’s place on the roster over Schwartz this last year).
Guard Geoff Schwartz is expected to move on from the Vikings, so he won’t be re-signed either. It’s a bit of a shame, as he’s a better player than Brandon Fusco. The Vikings will need to see significant improvement from Fusco to be happy with that decision.
With six free agents leaving and seven other players cut from the team, the Vikings will have to manage free agency carefully. Assuming the Vikings grab nine players from the draft and only one doesn’t make the team, they will have to add at least five more players to fill out the roster, and re-sign all the other free agents.
The first on the list is also the most underwhelming: Jerome Simpson. He’s not lived up to his potential, but he’s very cheap and could be cheap once more. With a back injury limiting his production, the Vikings should take another cheap risk by signing Simpson to another one-year “prove it” contract of perhaps $1.7 million, given his poor leverage. He has an underrated ability to read his coverage and adjust to holes in zones, and the Vikings could use that.
Phil Loadholt might have the hardest contract to predict. He’s had an up-and-down career, but ranked as the seventh-ranked right tackle by Pro Football Focus. In 2011, he was a dominant run-blocker but a very weak pass protector. The opposite was true the two years previous. An enigmatic tackle who may have finally come into his own this year in all phases of the game, he could command less than he’s worth.
Free agent right tackles have had a number of deals offered to them, making Loadholt a particularly difficult puzzle to solve, but there’s a good chance his cap hit for 2013 would be between Tyson Clabo’s 2012 hit ($4.8 million) and Todd Herremans’ hit ($3.7 million).
Clabo had an extraordinary 2011, so it is more likely that Herremans’ deal will match Loadholt’s. A 5-year, $28 million deal that has a $6 million dollar signing bonus with $8 million total guaranteed makes sense. The low guaranteed total is to ensure a safer deal from an inconsistent player. That should make Loadholt’s cap hit $4.3 million in 2013.
Making the Pro Bowl helped Jerome Felton quite a bit, but with Rhett Ellison having had extraordinary improvements in run blocking, Jerome Felton’s value to the Vikings is lower than it might be to other teams. Unluckily for Felton, there are not many teams looking for a run-blocking fullback. Other than Vonta Leach, fullbacks haven’t been getting very much money.
While Ellison’s run-blocking has been better as an in-line end than a lead blocker, his value long-term to the organization is greater than Felton’s. A short-term contract is preferable. Given Felton’s poor negotiating leverage, he may not be able to accept much else, but he will still likely demand a high percentage of guaranteed money. A 3-year, $8.5 million dollar deal, with $6.5 million guaranteed certainly fits. If the Vikings front-load the guaranteed money, they should be in a good spot to choose between Ellison and Felton in 2015. The cap hit for 2013 should be around $2.3 million, in that case.
Erin Henderson is a prototypical weak-side linebacker who can navigate traffic, fly from one side of the field to the other and wrap up. He did better in relief in 2011 than he did as a starter in 2012, but he has the chops to continue producing at a high level. He’s a good linebacker who only missed three tackles all season, the lowest any outside linebacker had with at least 600 snaps or 40 tackles (Henderson had 702 snaps and 74 tackles). He was worse in coverage, but still has the natural ability to improve this part of his game.
Matthias Kiwanuka came off a more productive season in 2011 than Henderson did in 2012, and ended up with a $21.75 million contract over 4 years. Quincy Black, in 2010 had a good year and scored a (much too lucrative) 5-year $29 million contract. Other successful outside linebackers have had 4-year deals worth anywhere between $17 million and $22 million in the past two years, and Erin Henderson should find a 4-year deal worth $20 million to be palatable. With $8 million guaranteed, and an initial cap hit of $4.5 million, the Vikings could end up with a steal—his talent exceeds his leverage.
Another starter, Jamarca Sanford, should be re-signed. He is neither a beacon of strength for the Vikings, nor a point of weakness. Regardless of what happens in the draft, he’s a solid starter who would also contribute in a big way as a backup if need be (the role he was nominally assigned before Mistral Raymond’s injury). He may have been unnoticed, but his ability to generate fumbles, tackle ball carriers and perform more than serviceably in coverage is scarce enough to covet.
A good model for Sanford’s contract is the potentially underpaid Thomas DeCoud of the Falcons. He signed a 5-year, $17.5 million contract after a few years of above-average play in Atlanta. He only had $4 million guaranteed, $3 million of it in signing bonus (and the rest paid through in the first year). Sanford’s year-to-year inconsistency and his need to improve in coverage will depress his price, and the Vikings could easily get away with signing him to a short-term deal while they look to replace him in the next few years.
The Vikings should attempt to sign him to a 3-year deal worth $8 million, with only $2 million guaranteed. Sanford doesn’t have much leverage to sign anything other than an incentive-laden contract. His excellent run support is valuable, but he can’t shop himself to a better deal around the league with his history. That means he’ll likely suck up a $2 million cap hit on the first year, and that’s fine. For a player that could be either a backup or a starter, he can’t ask for much more.
After losing both Johnson and Schwartz (one to cuts and the other to free agency), the Vikings should keep Joe Berger, who has performed poorly on other teams but did extremely well in backup for John Sullivan in 2011. He’s a good guard and center who might have the capability to start for other teams, but has no leverage with the Vikings or the rest of the NFL given his history and age (he will be 31).
His status as a veteran will help his position, but he’ll ultimately end up with a shorter deal (perhaps 3 years). He shouldn’t see more than $4.3 million over those three years, and should have a cap hit of $1.5 million in 2013.
A.J. Jefferson should be re-signed both as depth and as a punt returner. Despite his drops in gameplay in 2012, he was an exciting and impactful returner in college—something he would be more likely to replicate in 2013 than his limited play and practice the year before. As a coverage player, he gets turned around too easily, and was actually fairly poor—allowing over nine yards per target.
He still has more potential than Sherels in that he has more fluidity, athleticism and physical tools to improve. He has no leverage, and should be resigned for the league minimum, at $630,000. He should be fifth on the chart after a player they pick up in free agency or the draft.
Somebody who might be able to spell Jefferson or Winfield at cornerback is actually on the roster as a safety: Robert Blanton. Blanton should stay as a safety given his issues turning and his speed (4.70 40-yard dash at the combine), but he can play at depth if need be.
If he’s expected to do that, the Vikings might want to re-sign Andrew Sendejo, who has shown improvement at the position over the past two years, having moved off the practice squad to a serious spot on the roster. A good special teamer, he should be resigned for the minimum at $630,000.
Vikings Trade Options:
From there, the Vikings should trade Toby Gerhart to a team that needs a running back, probably for a fourth-round pick. As a player whose stock dropped in 2012, Gerhart will be more difficult to get rid of, but the Vikings can find a good third down back later in the draft.
Gerhart is too talented for the Vikings, and will likely not re-sign after 2014. Getting value early is important. Potential trade partners include the Bengals, Packers, Lions, Cardinals and Steelers.
The Vikings should avoid the Packers for two reasons: the first is that in-division trades are a bit unsavory, but the second reason is more important. The Packers will negotiate with Cedric Benson, and James Starks should improve upon his 2012 campaign, with the positive performance he had in 2011. The rise of DuJuan Harris means that the other three teams have less leverage and are more willing to give a fourth-round pick up for a starting-quality running back.
The Lions have a similar situation with Jahvid Best likely leaving, but Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell slated to take bigger roles and improve.
Splitting the difference and trading with the Steelers for the 112th pick will net the Vikings another pick which they can either use to trade of draft with. That will also give the Vikings another $1 million they can work with.
The Vikings thus have a hefty needs list, with ten draft picks and $14.7 million in cap space to work with. Creative structuring, carryover space and another use of the post-June 1st designation could bring that up to $16 million. If the Vikings were to sell out, of course, they could have over $24 million, but the key is long-term success without hurting future cap space.
The Vikings will need two linebackers in the middle, a starting nose tackle, two to three wide receivers, a starting guard, two additional offensive linemen to provide depth (ideally at least one swingman, but a guard and a tackle are both necessary), a backup running back, a backup cornerback—preferably one who can play in the slot, a backup safety, and a backup quarterback to compete with McLeod Bethel-Thompson and Joe Webb.
With over $5 million reserved for the draft, the Vikings will only have $10 million of 2013 cap space to attract free agents. That will either make targeting in free agency a one-and-done prospect for a high-profile player, or a challenge in creating depth and developing prospects.
The Vikings should choose the latter strategy.
Free Agent Targets:
While the free agent list may seem lifted from a colleague of mine over at another site, there’s not much to improve upon it—all three free agents he selects, I’ve independently selected as targets as well.
Starting with Desmond Bryant, a nose tackle from Oakland—a team over their cap for 2013 by $8.3 million—the Vikings can immediately upgrade on the defensive line. Bryant can play at nose, undertackle or defensive end. At 27, he’s young enough to provide vigor, but old enough to provide experience.
Bryant deservedly gets a mention on ESPN’s “under the radar” list of free agents, and finished as the sixth-best defensive tackle in PFF’s defensive tackle rankings in 2012, and the top nose tackle (in 3-4 and 4-3). With an extraordinary amount of pressure for a nose tackle, he effectively redirected runners and stayed stout against double-teams.
His underrated status should give the Vikings the leeway they need to secure him to a smaller contract; they could potentially sign him to a deal similar to Brandon Mebane’s current deal—5 years for $25 million. He’ll require more guaranteed money than Mebane received, but not something to worry about too much. A signing bonus of $3 million, with an additional $4 million guaranteed might be something the Vikings could swing. The first year, the cap hit will be around $4.1 million.
After that, guard Louis Vasquez is worth a serious look. Underrated out of San Diego, he’s been consistently good for a team not known for its offensive line play. Brandon Moore is a better player, but has already entered the peak of his ability. Despite the fact that the Jets won’t be able to sign him (with over $24 million in cap hits to get rid of), he will likely come a bit more expensive than need be and will be 33 when the season starts.
The biggest name is Andy Levitre, but he could command money on par with Carl Nicks. The Vikings would have to use carryover space to sign him, and that would not be wise for a long-term strategy that sees 2014 and 2015 as prime years to compete for a legitimate title.
Instead, Vasquez could be signed for cheaper, despite pro scouts falling “in love” with him. He was the AFC West’s 2009 rookie of the year, and he deserved the honor. Injuries in 2010 and 2011 hurt him and his play, but a strong 2012 campaign (for him, not his team) have moved him back in place as a good guard target.
At the end of the day, the recent interest in Vasquez could ratchet his price out of the Vikings’ reach, and they could instead sign a true left guard (Vasquez played on the right) in Giants free agent Kevin Boothe (the Giants are $10 million over the cap for 2013).
If the Vikings cannot sign Vasquez for a 5 year deal totaling $24 million, they should sign Kevin Boothe for 4 years (he’s older, at 29) at $16 million.
The second case is more likely, so the 2013 cap hit is close to $2.5 million in 2013.
The third target, Brad Jones, will come from a familiar source—the Green Bay Packers. They are expected to return A.J. Hawk, Desmond Bishop, and D.J. Smith. Along with that, Rob Francois is a restricted free agent, and will likely return as well. Jones, who moved from outside linebacker in a primarily pass-rushing role, found his niche as an inside linebacker.
Most surprising is Jones’ coverage capability. He doesn’t drop deep quickly enough to be a cornerstone in a Tampa-2 system, but he certainly outpaces most of the free agent linebackers on the market, and could stay on for a few years in competition with a drafted linebacker. Jones’ conversion hasn’t convinced everybody, so a short front-loaded 3-year deal would be ideal.
His ability to cover tight ends will raise the price (and he covered Chris Johnson well enough out of the backfield when they played the Titans), but a 3-year, $14 million deal with $8 million guaranteed (a $3.5 signing bonus and big portions of the 2013 and 2014 season paid out) for a cap hit of $3.4 million in 2013 should suffice.
That consumes the rest of the cap space evenly, although if the Vikings offered Danario Alexander a front-loaded contract that de-escalated its cap hit to ameliorate the impact of carryover space (and expect a big cap increase in 2014 of around $6 million), then they could be in a good spot.
Extending 2014 free agents Percy Harvin, Brian Robison, Everson Griffen and Chris Cook will be a priority in 2013, so front-loaded contracts that take advantage of the carryover space to smooth out the long-term impact of their deals will be important. At least $6 million of the carryover should be reserved for that, while the other $2 million can be used to sign Danario Alexander.
Alexander is behind Vincent Brown and Malcom Floyd on the depth chart, and he has all the signs of being the next Victor Cruz with his explosive capability. A 5-year, $30 million contract may seem high, but if the Vikings guarantee money up-front and move the cap hit in the back, they can insure themselves. An initial cap hit of $3 million followed by cap hits of $6 million and more later can give the Vikings an explosive playmaker to play alongside Harvin and a draft pick that makes the Vikings a threat on all three levels.
Before the draft, the depth chart looks like this:
QB: Christian Ponder, Joe Webb, McLeod Bethel-Thompson
HB: Adrian Peterson, Matt Asiata
FB: Jerome Felton
TE: Kyle Rudolph, John Carlson, Rhett Ellison
SE: Danario Alexander, Jerome Simpson
FL: Percy Harvin, Jarius Wright, Stephen Burton
LT: Matt Kalil
LG: Kevin Boothe, Joe Berger
C: John Sullivan
RG: Brandon Fusco
RT: Phil Loadholt, DeMarcus Love
RDE: Jared Allen, Everson Griffen
UT: Kevin Williams, Christian Ballard
NT: Desmond Bryant, Fred Evans
LDE: Brian Robison, D’Aundre Reed
SLB: Chad Greenway, Larry Dean
MLB: Brad Jones, Audie Cole
WLB: Erin Henderson
LCB: Antoine Winfield, Josh Robinson
RCB: Chris Cook, A.J. Jefferson
SS: Jamarca Sanford, Robert Blanton
FS: Harrison Smith, Andrew Sendejo
K: Blair Walsh
P: Chris Kluwe
KR: Percy Harvin, A.J. Jefferson, Danario Alexander
PR: A.J. Jefferson, Jarius Wright, Danario Alexander
The Vikings will need a running back, a receiver, a defensive tackle, a safety, a slot cornerback, a middle linebacker and a weak-side linebacker. One of these players must be able to compete with A.J. Jefferson at punt returner.
The 2013 NFL Draft:
The Vikings will enter the draft with the following picks:
Round One: #23
Round Two: #52
Round Three: #83
Round Four: #99 (from Detroit)
Round Four: #112 (from Pittsburgh)
Round Four: #117
Round Five: #148
Round Six: #179
Round Seven: #197 (from Arizona)
Round Seven: #214
The Vikings should trade down into the second round out of the first, either by trading down a few slots and then out (ala the New England Patriots in 2009) or directly out of the second to a willing trade partner. A good bet is Arizona, who needs to grab a quarterback and a top-tier left tackle. For that, the Vikings could swing a second-round pick, a third-round pick and a third-round pick for 2014. With eleven picks, the Vikings will want to trade in picks to get high-quality players early on; there’s only so much room on the roster.
For that, they’ll trade up into the second round with their third-round pick and two of their fourth-round picks, one from Pittsburgh. A team like Miami, with several needs and a few picks to play with in the first several rounds are a possible trade partner. Same with Cincinnati, who need more picks overall. That will only be enough to get them Cincinnati’s later pick in the second round, which should be fine.
Round Two: #38 (from Arizona)
Round Two: #52
Round Two: #53 (from Cincinnati)
Round Three: #69 (from Arizona)
Round Four: #99 (from Detroit)
Round Five: #148
Round Six: #179
Round Seven: #197 (from Arizona)
Round Seven: #214
That reduces the Vikings back to nine picks, which should be enough to get them who they need. The Vikings lose a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick, gain two second-round picks and move up in the third round.
In order, the picks are
38: DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
52: Arthur Brown, ILB Kansas State
53: Brandon Williams, NT Missouri Southern
69: Robert Alford, CB Southeastern Louisiana
99: Zaviar Gooden, OLB Missouri
148: Garrett Gilkey, OT/OG Chaldron State
179: Zeke Motta, S Notre Dame
197: Zac Stacy, RB Vanderbilt
214: Wes Horton, DE USC
The first three picks should be easy to explain – DeAndre Hopkins can also provide a deep-threat capability, and is easily the most NFL-ready of any wide receiver in the draft. He has incredibly polished moves for a receiver, great speed and excellent hands. At Clemson, he was asked to make plays at every level, with 10% of his passes coming from behind the line of scrimmage, 20% from 1-5 yards, 25% of his passes going from 6-10 yards, 25% of his passes coming between 11-20 yards and the final 20% going deep. He adjusts well to the ball in the air and can certainly make an immediate impact for the Vikings.
Arthur Brown might not be the best linebacker in the draft, but he’s the best fit in the Tampa-2 that the Vikings run of any linebacker in the draft. He’s not just quick, but instinctive in zones. He can backpedal perhaps better than any other top-tier linebacker and plays coverage like a pro. With quick hips and good coverage up the seam, he’s the opposite of Jasper Brinkley. He’s undersized, but has historically played well against bigger blockers than people imagine.
Brandon Williams is a fantastic prospect with good balance, speed and aggression to play at either defensive tackle spot. He played at every interior position on the line at Southern Missouri, but played most of his snaps at the undertackle spot. His size and balance fit well as a nose tackle, but he needs technique work to play well in the NFL. His performance at the Senior Bowl, general strength and surprising quickness should make him an impact player in less than a year.
Robert Alford might be the best small-school prospect, but a mid-tier cornerback class that wide could drop him to the top of the third. He surprised at the Senior Bowl, and has strong hands in press coverage. He has the quickness to play in the slot, and is perfectly fit to back up Antoine Winfield for a year. While he doesn’t have great deep speed, he’s got great closing speed and good play in underneath zones. Alford could easily challenge Jefferson for a punt return spot, giving him extra value here.
To back up Erin Henderson and prepare for a potential exit a few years later, the Vikings could go the direction of Zavier Gooden—an athletic wonder who impressed in his all-star performance at the Senior Bowl. While he needs work placing himself correctly and shedding blocks, placing him at the Will minimizes his weaknesses and maximizes his strengths. He’s great in coverage and gives the Vikings a number of options in nickel packages that they didn’t have before, with excellent man-to-man play and deep drops (and instinctive play) in zones.
Garrett Gilkey also rose because of his all-star performance, but it’s his versatility that makes him a tantalizing pick in the fifth round. He lined up as a tackle at Chadron State, and his quick feet from playing as a tight end in high school translated well to his play. More impressive, he had the power to play well at guard, even knocking over strong defensive tackles like Johnathan Jenkins and Josh Boyd. His good footwork and versatility make him an excellent backup who could even challenge for a starting spot in a few years.
The Vikings need to pick a Notre Dame player, and here’s a good spot. Also, Zeke Motta actually offers value. At 6’3”and 215 pounds, he’s an intimidating safety that can take on strong safety responsibilities in specific packages. He’s a downhill player that can close on the ball quickly and reads plays well enough to place himself. While he has a lot of footwork changes to make, and needs to rotate coverage better, he works best in a Cover 2 system more than anything else. He’s surprisingly good in man coverage, and can offer a few changes for the Vikings while adding skills the Vikings may not have in Jamarca Sanford. Also, there should be some degree of chemistry between him and fellow Notre Dame alum Harrison Smith.
Needing a reliable pass-catcher and a serviceable pass-protector, he could provide a decent change of pace, but also good relief for the best running back in the league. He runs inside and outside well, but shows particular aptitude for pitches outside and zone-running schemes. He can play smoothly and runs routes well enough to show potential. He started off his East-West Shrine Game week with poor practices, but recovered well enough that teams might want to take a chance despite his injury history. He also has punt return experience and could end up fostering great competition for that spot.
This late in the seventh round, it might be better to pick someone with upside than proven talent, and that’s exactly what Wes Horton represents. Probably underrated, his frame and speed around the edge make him a chancy prospect to challenge D’Aundre Reed for a backup spot and provide the Vikings with something they love—defensive line depth. He has violent hands, but needs a lot more work in placement and balance. He needs more rush moves, but has flashed potential. If he can beat a kick-slide outside or counter-move inside, he can develop into a devastating rusher.
Without a lot of opportunity to play against high-level competition, Alex Carder still shows serious talent with decent zip and great accuracy. Poor under pressure, Carder exhibits nearly every other skill against tough coverages, including eight-man zones and tight man coverage on sidelines. He can drop a bucket pass over a receiver’s shoulder and even leads receivers on short routes. He didn’t show remarkable arm strength and can wobble the ball, but he certainly can challenge Webb for a backup spot without a problem. Not only that, he’s a tough runner that holds himself to a high degree of responsibility in play adjustments and is extremely quick in decisionmaking and dropbacks. Underrated is his ability to throw off his back foot and on the run, although his decisionmaking there leaves something to be desired. If the Vikings grab him to compete as an undrafted agent, he could displace Webb.
Other undrafted free agents like Tyrone Goard (WR, Eastern Kentucky), Michael Clay (OLB, Oregon), Braden Hansen (OG, Brigham Young), Ray Ray Armstrong (S, Faulkner State/Miami (Fl.)), Blaize Foltz (OG, TCU), Quinton Dial (DT, Alabama) could all provide healthy competition as well.
At the end of preseason camp, the Vikings could end with:
QB: Christian Ponder, Alex Carder, Joe Webb
HB: Adrian Peterson, Zac Stacy, Matt Asiata
FB: Jerome Felton
TE: Kyle Rudolph, John Carlson, Rhett Ellison
SE: DeAndre Hopkins, Danario Alexander, Jerome Simpson
FL: Percy Harvin, Jarius Wright, Stephen Burton
LT: Matt Kalil, Garett Gilkey
LG: Kevin Boothe, Joe Berger
C: John Sullivan
RG: Brandon Fusco
RT: Phil Loadholt, DeMarcus Love
RDE: Jared Allen, Everson Griffen
UT: Kevin Williams, Brandon Williams, Christian Ballard
NT: Desmond Bryant, Fred Evans
LDE: Brian Robison, D’Aundre Reed, Wes Horton
SLB: Chad Greenway, Larry Dean
MLB: Arthur Brown, Brad Jones, Audie Cole
WLB: Erin Henderson, Zavier Gooden
LCB: Antoine Winfield, Josh Robinson
RCB: Chris Cook, Robert Alford, A.J. Jefferson
SS: Jamarca Sanford, Robert Blanton, Zeke Motta
FS: Harrison Smith, Andrew Sendejo
K: Blair Walsh
P: Chris Kluwe
KR: Percy Harvin, Robert Alford, Danario Alexander
PR: Robert Alford, A.J. Jefferson, Zac Stacy
This ends up being heavy on defense and missing some depth on offense, but teams have done well with eight offensive linemen before, especially with three versatile players playing at backup—two swing tackle/guards and one guard/center. Otherwise, the loser of the Horton/Reed battle will cede their spot to a UDFA guard or tackle (like Dann O’Neill, OT Western Michigan).
That construction will give the Vikings the youth and depth they need to consistently compete, even if they end up going into carryover space. Strong negotiating and effective contract management will frontload enough contracts that the carryover space won’t bite the Vikings. If not, they’ll not go after Danario Alexander and instead draft a player like Uzoma Nwachukwu of Texas A&M instead of Horton or Corey Fuller instead of Alex Carder.
[...] regards to depth, the backups in 2012 were Josh Robinson, A.J. Jefferson and Marcus Sherels. Robinson was a rookie with electric speed but struggled down the stretch and [...]
[...] regards to depth, the backups in 2012 were Josh Robinson, A.J. Jefferson and Marcus Sherels. Robinson was a rookie with electric speed but struggled down the stretch [...]